5th July 2025 – India became the most populated nation on the planet in 2023 surpassing China and its population is set to peak in 2060s. It is expected to hit 1.67 billion by 2063 after which it is expected to decline.
For anyone who has the slightest knowledge of history will agree to the fact that once a nation’s fertility rate goes below the replacement level, it becomes an uphill task to reverse the trend and no nation in the past has ever been able to achieve it.
Brief of China’s population growth since 1950
China’s is a typical case where state interference has led to dramatic changes in the population levels. After People’s Republic of China was established in 1949, China’s population was approximately half a billion people. With state’s sturdy health and wellness programs and focused mother and child healthcare services in the subsequent decades, the mortality rates went down and China’s population grew by 250 million by 1970.1
The then Chinese premier Mao Zedong in fact said, “Of all things in the world, people are the most precious.” However, with rapid population growth came an equal number of challenges such as building infrastructure, housing, declining agricultural growth among others. Keeping this in mind, China adopted the “one child policy” in the late 1970s2. The policy was heavily imposed on Chinese people. Different provinces adopted different measures to incentivise couples to have one child. Various forms of birth contraceptives were made available and forced abortions and sterilizations were invoked for those who refused to comply.
The adoption of one-child policy, although, led to a decline in the population in China but it also negatively impacted its demographics. As a result of the policy, fertility rates fell from 5.813 in 1950 to 1.6865 births per woman in 2010.3 Preference for boys over girls led to gender imbalance in the society and its workforce. By the early 2010s, China was already facing a steep decline in fertility rates and growing ageing population. Its workforce was getting less productive and old-age care costs were increasing as a nation. Hence, the Chinese government decided to close down the one-child policy by early 2016.
COVID-19 that struck March 2020 further complicated the situation and the fertility rate in 2024 fell to 1.013 births per woman.4 Since 2021, the Chinese government is promoting “three-child policy” to encourage couples to have three children.5 At the moment, it is projected that by the end of the century, China’s population may drop drastically and may reach 770 million levels.
India’s population growth story
In contrast to China, India’s population stood at about 370 million in 1953. The then Government of India perceived growing population as a challenge and established National Family Planning Program with the objectives of encouraging people to have two children. The program took several measures to promote family planning and spread awareness through different mediums including radio and newspapers.
Despite several measures, the population growth grew at a steady rate of over 2% each year until 1995 after which it fell below 2% mark for the first time. Forced sterilizations and abortions were imposed in 1975 for a short period of time but did not succeed in bringing down the population levels.6
Although, India’s measures on family planning have not been harsh as they have been in the case of China, it still has dented the fertility rates and overall population growth. With the growth of “nuclear family structure” in the Indian society, the fertility rates have gone down severely from 5.7316 in 1950 to 1.9622 in 2024. In the year 2000, India’s fertility rate fell below the replacement level7 to 2.0468 and since then has been on the decline.
Fear mongering, misinformation and lack of awareness lead to wrongly correlating India’s population growth with global warming and resource scarcity.8 Although India’s population will continue to grow until 2063, its younger population will decline putting a large burden to cover for costs of the aged ones. It is only sane that the Indian government learn from the Chinese experience and shut down all population control programs across the nation and encourage families to have more children.
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1116810/
- https://www.britannica.com/topic/one-child-policy
- https://database.earth/population/china/fertility-rate
- Ibid
- https://chinapower.csis.org/china-demographics-challenges/
- https://database.earth/population/india/fertility-rate
- https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/
- https://idronline.org/article/ecosystem-development/addressing-misinformation-on-indias-population-growth/
Picture Credit – Azim Premji University
